The regulatory environment for oil and gas in coming years may depend most on the outcome in the Senate in November.
That's the analysis of Lee Lilly, vice president of federal public affairs for the public affairs firm McGuireWoods Consulting. Lilly presented his electoral analysis Sept. 11 at the annual fall meeting of the West Virginia Oil and Natural Gas Association.
Post-convention, the likeliest outcome in November remains Obama in the White House and a divided Congress, with the second most likely outcome a GOP Congress, Lilly said.
A continuation of the Democratic Senate and Republican House would leave Obama hamstrung for two more years; he would probably continue to push for regulation by executive action.
The president supports some expansions on drilling and has expressed cautious support for hydraulic fracturing, Lilly noted.
A Romney win, Lilly said, especially if the Republicans took the Senate along with the House, could bring efforts to curtail some Environmental Protection Agency rules and to update the Clean Air Act. Romney has said he would streamline oil and gas rules.
Regarding committees:
Senate Energy and Natural Resources: If Democrats carry the chamber, Ron Wyden, D-Ore., will serve as chairman. He has some hostility to fossil fuels and is opposed to coal and natural gas exports, Lilly said, but he is known for bipartisanship. If Republicans lead, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska will serve as chairwoman. She would expand drilling on federal lands and also has a history of reaching across the aisle.
Senate Environment and Public Works: Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., will continue as chairwoman if Dems win. She has "huge hostility" to fossil fuels, Lilly said, and would resist change to the Clean Air Act. But she has a good working relationship with leading Republican Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma. If the GOP wins, Inhofe may prefer to chair the Armed Forces committee, in which case Sen. David Vitter, R-La., would serve as the environment committee's chairman.
House Energy and Commerce Committee: The committee has served as a Republican communications vehicle for the past two years, Lilly said. Chairman Fred Upton, R-Mich., may change his approach if the Republicans take the Senate or the administration.
Lilly does not expect movement on climate legislation until after 2014.
The WVONGA annual fall meeting concludes today.
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