Barring any October surprises, economic issues or national security threats, Larry Sabato thinks President Barack Obama is on path to win re-election.
Sabato, the director of the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia, spoke in Charleston Oct. 9 as part of the University of Charleston's Speaker Series. Sabato's "Crystal Ball" is often spot-on in predicting state and national political races — he missed the outcome of the 2008 presidential election by one electoral vote but forecast exactly Obama's 53 percent popular vote tally.
Sabato predicted Obama will rack up 277 electoral votes to GOP nominee Mitt Romney's 235 in the Nov. 6 general election. About 26 electoral votes are considered tossups.
But while Sabato thinks Obama will be OK in November, he says the race will be close, especially following Obama's rocky debate performance.
"This is a very different race than it was 10 days ago," Sabato said. "Ten days ago, we were on a glide path to have President Obama re-elected."
Sabato said he thinks Romney will do well in the next two debates, and his performance could determine his outcome Nov. 6.
"I think Mitt Romney has to do well in those debates to make up the ground that needs to be made up in the key swing states," Sabato said. "If he does it, he will pull off an upset. If he does not, we'll return to that pre-debate glide path."
Sabato said although Obama is a divisive president and candidate, he, like Romney, has his positives and negatives. Perhaps the biggest thing working in Obama's favor is incumbency.
"It is much more difficult to eject the party after just four years, especially, as is almost always the case, if they have an unpopular predecessor from the opposite party," Sabato said.
Such is the case with Obama. Sabato said many voters blame former President George W. Bush for the economic collapse and the unpopular war in Iraq.
"The conditions are just right for Obama," he said.
But Obama promised hope and change during his 2008 campaign, and many voters feel he didn't deliver. Those disenchanted voters are more likely to vote for Romney, Sabato said.
"Those who are unhappy, those who believed in the promises in 2008, are naturally ready to vote for the opponent," Sabato said.
However, Republicans weren't too eager to nominate Romney. He emerged out of a crowded field of candidates who all had their flaws, Sabato said. However, Romney was the more obvious choice if the party wants to oust Obama in a few weeks.
"Romney was the only, only choice who could potentially win in November," Sabato said. "The others just had too many problems of one sort or another."
Despite what the polls show, the election could come down to eight key swing states, including Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Third-party candidates and legal issues in those states could shape how votes are split among the two mainstream candidates.
For example, an Ohio judge's order to allow three additional days of late, in-person voting could result in an additional 30,000 votes for Obama.
"If it's a really close race, that could be the election," Sabato said.
A Constitution Party candidate is on the ballot in Virginia. Sabato said he thinks the majority of that candidate's votes could come from Romney supporters. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, a new voter ID law that could have helped Republican candidates has been "checkmated," Sabato said. A judge ruled Oct. 9 to block provisions of that law, effectively stopping the law from going into effect before the November elections.
"It's a close, competitive election," Sabato said.
All content © Copyright 2000 - 2013 WorldNow and WOWK. All Rights Reserved.
