Big heat gives way to big rain then big questions


(WOWK) — Soaring temperatures and heat index values will relinquish their grip on the area by Thursday, but only as anticipated heavy rains come in to cool things down. Meanwhile there are some storms roaming the region Monday night and they are drifting to the northwest thanks to the overall weather pattern. Those storms should wind down after about 10 p.m. and likely won’t make it past the Ohio River.

Steering winds are pushing storms northwest Monday night

Tuesday looks even a little hotter with daytime highs running in the low to mid 90s and once again the heat index should rise into the 100 degree range.

Future temperature model output for Tuesday

Later in the week, very heavy rain comes into play for Thursday and Friday on most weather models. This should move in from the west then stick around for the better part of those two days. Some areas may have water issues if they receive too much rain.

Estimated rainfall through late Friday on GFS Predictor model

The temperatures will be much cooler during the rainy period, with highs in the 70s up to about 80.

There are serious questions that come into play about the weather for Independence Day weekend.

The American GFS model (seen below) shows a large area of low pressure coming down from the Great Lakes and sitting just to the west of our area for days. This would mean occasional rounds of rain across the weekend and into the following week.

The European weather model (seen below) indicates the low coming down from the Great Lakes but getting out of the region fairly quickly, leaving the weekend mostly dry for us.

So the weekend forecast is still very much open to changes. For now we will include at least a chance of rain for the weekend but we will look for weather models to come up with better agreement which will lead to a more accurate forecast. Be sure to check back through the week.

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