(WOWK) — Forecast details continue to come in to focus for the Memorial Day weekend. There are so many events planned across the three days that it’s important to have a solid forecast even days in advance. The only issue this year is: weather models.

Last week, the long range models looked like we would have a solid three day dry period, but the American GFS model started producing an area of low pressure over the region that traveled to the east and then came back to the west meaning we would see showers throughout much of the holiday weekend.

Upper air weather model output from GFS model for Saturday morning

The European model was completely dry but now it shows the same area of low pressure, however it allows it to pass out to the east rapidly. This would result in showers only on Saturday.

Upper air weather model output from the WCMWF model for Saturday morning

It’s still too far away to nail down the entire weekend with 100% certainty, but in these cases we look for changes and trends and we also use what are called ensemble models.  That’s where we look at dozens and dozens of models basically put in a statistical blender for the most likely outcome.

Overall those models seem to indicate that we do have a chance of rain on Saturday with dry and hotter conditions on Sunday and Monday.

We will continue to watch  closely for more changes but as of this forecast, (Tuesday May 24) we feel the best chance for rain takes place on Saturday with very hot conditions on Monday, extending well through much of next week.

Stay on top of the weather changes anytime by downloading and using the StormTracker13 Weather app. It’s free and you can download it at the link directly below.