New tropical system brewing with possible impacts to southeast U.S.

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MIAMI, FL (WOWK) – A potential tropical cyclone is being watched by the National Hurricane Center. The system was given the name “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” by the NHC Thursday afternoon.

Current projections show this system gaining some strength but it is not anticipated to have near the strength of Hurricane Dorian even though it may have a similar track heading across the Bahamas and heading for the general area of the Florida coast.

As of 5 p.m. Thursday (9/12/19) the NHC says: “maximum sustained winds are near 30 miles per hour with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.”

New system and overall area where the storm can move generated 5pm 8/12/19 by NOAA National Hurricane Center

“The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is NOT expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. “

NOAA NHC Key Messages 5pm 9/12/19

While the confidence of the storm forming into a full blown tropical system is very high 80-90% over the next few days, the confidence is low on exactly where the strongest winds or impacts may be felt.

Confidence is high that the winds will not become anywhere near the strength of Dorian. The following image shows the wind speeds generated by weather models with each model represented by a line moving in time from left to right. Late Thursday models indicate possible wind speeds mainly in the tropical depression or tropical storm range. Only two models allow the storm to reach hurricane strength in this run of models. Of course things can change and NOAA and NHC will monitor this system and adjust forecasts as needed.

Model info provided by Levi Cowan of Tropicaltidbits.com

As of the first posting of info on this storm from NHC, weather models are indicating a few inches of rain but nothing like Dorian totals. Below is a look at the Thursday afternoon run of the GFS model rain output showing 3 or more inches of rain in Florida from the storm.

1st look at model output from GFS model of possible rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as of Thurs 9/12/2019

StormTracker 13 will keep tabs on this possible storm and keep you up to date on air and online as developments unfold.

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