(WOWK) — Snow came and went Sunday night and Monday morning, leaving southern and eastern parts of West Virginia with as much as 6 inches of snow in some areas.

Snowfall estimates from Sunday night/Monday morning snow system

The weather looks quiet until Thursday when a new storm system moves in. Temperatures will jump until Thursday then will fall sharply.

The main forecast question is whether or not we will see accumulating snow and how much.

The models all tend to project an upper level trough of low pressure coming through the region.

Model projection of low pressure trough Thursday night

The trough is an are of low pressure above us that creates lift. It’s also a bubble of colder air that presses south. Lift with cold air and moisture helps create snow. Most of the models show this trough with slight position differences. The problem for forecasters is where the models place the snow. Some models have very heavy amounts of snow by Friday morning and others have nearly no snow at all. We give you two “middle-of-the-road” examples below but even these have vast differences in placement and amounts:

GFS Predictor model output for snow by Friday morning – focused on the high elevations
BAMS 15 KM Predictor model output from 7 a.m. for snow by Friday morning – focused on western Ohio

Another problem is lack of consistency. The model above was generated from data coming in at 7 a.m. The very same model has a 5 inch increase in snow for areas such as Huntington in the next run of data at 1 p.m.

BAMS 15 KM Predictor model output from 1 p.m. for snow by Friday morning – focused on the Ohio River Valley

Why are the models so different at this point? Because the area of low pressure that is likely the key player is sitting in the Pacific Ocean where weather balloons and more surface readings are not readily available. Once this energy crosses over the U.S. Mainland, more readings will help improve weather model agreement, consistency and hopefully accuracy.

Monday night placement of low that could create snow here on Thursday

Another big issue will be the exact track of the surface low pressure responsible for this projected snow once it does reach this general area.

BAMS 15 KM Predictor model output showing the surface features and the low pressure over Huntington late Thursday

The StormTracker 13 Predictor model shows the surface low right over the Ohio River Thursday. If that happens we will see rain change to snow and lighter amounts. If the low is farther south we likely see more snow for more of us. If the low is farther north we likely see less snow because more hours will be spent on the warm side of the front.

So stay tuned because we know this is going to be some kind of weather maker that could slow us all down but the details clearly need to be worked out over the next few days. Download and use the StormTracker 13 weather app. It’s free and you can download it right here: