Atlantic weather system influences our forecast for week ahead with cooler than normal pattern returning


CHARLESTON, WV (WOWK) – While the heat has returned to the area after an unseasonably cold start to the month of May, another slightly cooler than normal weather pattern emerges for the first part of next week (May 18, 2020)

An area of low pressure forming across the middle portion of the nation will move between the Great Lakes and the Appalachians but will be blocked from making further progress to the east thanks to what could become a sub tropical or tropical storm system of the Atlantic seacoast. This leaves an area of low pressure right over our area starting Monday. Original forecasts calling for a dry start to the week have changed drastically.

Early model output for Monday May 18, 2020 with low pressure over our area and cool showers

According to the National Hurricane Center there’s a greater than 50% chance that a storm will form to the north east of Florida and linger fairly close to the North and South Carolina seacoasts.

Chance of storm formation in the Atlantic, 70%. Type of storm not fully known.

One thing that will hinder the upscale growth of that storm system is the fact that the sea surface temperatures are well below the 80 degree threshold needed to sustain tropical storm activity.
Recent water temperature readings have been generally in the 60s along the North Carolina shoreline. However, the storm can still churn up large waves and large amounts of rainfall in the eastern portion of the Carolinas.

Tuesday May 19, 2020 model output showing low to the south but still creating showers as the system lingers in the eastern half of the nation. The Atlantic system starting to slowly move northeast.

Because that Atlantic system is moving so slowly, the low pressure near our area will sit for a day or two causing rain for Monday and potentially a good part of Tuesday. Then temperatures will have a chance to moderate, getting back to normal or above normal as the remainder of the week unfolds. 

Model output for Monday May 18, 2020 showing cooler than normal air masses in the blue shading

Currently, it appears our high temperatures will be in the 60s Monday and Tuesday when the normal high would be in the mid 70s and we should see more rounds of showers until later in the week.

Model output for Tuesday May 19, 2020 showing slightly cooler than normal air mass over the area in the green shaded zone over our region

Stay tuned with us here for the latest forecast details and you can get the StormTracker13 have any time with the StormTracker13 Weather app.

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