Delta expected to bring rounds of heavy rain to our area on the weekend – an update on rain amounts and impacts

Weather

(WOWK) – Heavy rain is anticipated from what will be the remnant low pressure center of Hurricane Delta in the region this weekend, however previous dry conditions could help avoid flooding problems.

Projected path of Delta as of 10/7/2020

The hurricane will move inland and weaken to become a soaking rain producing area of low pressure and the remnant low will be over our area late Sunday night and a portion of Monday.

Weather models have gone back and forth with the placement of the possible heaviest rain amounts, but the general idea is that there could be 1 to 3 inches of rain from this event in our area.

American GFS rainfall output shows up to 2.3 inches of rain from Delta as of the 10/7/2020 models
The forecast for rainfall amounts from the NWS Weather Prediction Center from 10/7 until Tuesday 10/13 updated 10/7

As of Wednesday there are no alerts or advisories mentioning flooding in the area. October is a traditionally dry month with less than 3 inches of rain being the normal for the entire 31 days period. This event could produce the normal amount of rain the area sees in a month. 2019 was a very wet October statistically as well.

Average precip in the region for October

Another factor that could lead to a lower flood risk is the fact that the area has seen very little rain in the past week and past month.

Previous detected rain from 10/7 back to 10/1, 2020
Percentage of normal rain for the last 30 days indicates very dry conditions in the area

Streams, creeks and rivers are running at low levels so there is ample room for rainfall. The key factors helping to avoid a large concern for flooding are low water levels, previously dry soil and possible gaps within the system allowing runoff to occur before new rounds of rain take shape.

The bottom line: widespread flooding is not anticipated but as always, smaller localized high water issues can occur when any system produces a fast inch or two of rain or where there are poor drainage areas. Overall the flood potential at this early stage appears to be low. Wind is not a concern as of Wednesday’s weather data. Gusts of 20 mph with a possible 30 mph gust on higher mountain peaks for Sunday show up on weather models as of Wednesday night. There were similar winds in the area earlier Wednesday afternoon so wind impact should be low.

Of course the StormTracker 13 meteorolgists will keep you on top of things and be sure to download the StormTracker13 weather app right here for free.

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