Dry start to October but rain is on the way


(WOWK) — September ended on a dry note in the region and October is set to start dry and warm as well. Highs topped out 2 to 3 degrees above normal for Thursday and the lows were very close to normal.

Daily almanac for Huntington
Daily almanac for Charleston

Moving ahead, the next chance for rain comes along on Sunday according to weather models. The rain should arrive mainly late in the day and there will still be many areas that do not see rain during the day.

GFS Model output for Sunday evening

Monday shows the best chance of some moderate to briefly heavy rain during the day.

GFS model output for Monday

By late Monday, an area of low pressure comes in from the north and gets cut off from the main jet stream flow. This low will sit to our west and is shown in the weather model image below, looking at the flow at about 18,000 feet above the surface. The low can be seen in the image below on the Illinois – Indiana border.

Upper level weather pattern weather model output for late Monday via Pivotal Weather

This upper level low will provide just enough instability that we could see afternoon showers develop in the daytime heat. The key is that this is not expected to be a wall to wall washout. The models differ on where the low goes after Friday but the projected rainfall amounts appear to be fairly light for having a chance of showers each day.

Overall this kind of rain does not present flood risks and should help to keep the forest and wild fire danger in check to some degree. The latest Drought Monitor issued Thursday shows even less of the West Virginia high terrain in the “dry” zone.

The temperature trends stay mild on balance through the end of next week.

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