Looks like a soggy start to 2021

Weather
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February 07 2021 06:00 pm

(WOWK) – As people prepare to flip the calendar to 2021, the weather picture to start the new year looks a little soggy. In fact, it looks fairly soggy just 5 days away.

A large area of low pressure is expected to form across the Plains and sweep to the northeast, but the low will remain to our west. So instead of snow, we will see rain. The rain starts on Thursday then fades, only to be replaced by more rounds of rain for Friday, which is New Year’s Day.

American GFS Model output for Friday morning, 1/1/21

The models are fairly consistent our region even though the system is several days away. Here’s another example below from the European model.

ECMWF Model output for Friday, 1/1/21

The early call on this system is either side of 2 inches of rain for our area with heavier amounts seen mainly just west of our region. Lesser amounts are projected for the areas east of I-79 this time so the focus for the heaviest rain appears to be along the Ohio River, but that takes into account the rain on Thursday lingering along the river area and not to the east.

WPC Rainfall estimate for Monday through Saturday

Flooding is a distinct possibility to our west, centered on Arkansas and East Texas.

Excessive rainfall risk areas for Wednesday and Thursday

Currently there are no flood products or outlooks issued for our area but if there are any we will alert you to those chances if there is any risk. The ground is soggy to snow covered still in our area meaning there will be lots of runoff once this rain moves in. Temperatures will be mild in the 50s and 60s crossing from Thursday into Friday so this should be all in the form of rain.

It’s a good time to grab the StormTracker 13 Weather app for free right here.

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