HOUSTON (CW39 and WOWK) – NOAA has just released their prediction for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. While the outlook calls for an active season, it does not appear likely that a record number of storms will develop according to the experts.
This prediction includes a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
This forecast falls in line with the Colorado State University forecast that was released earlier this year, which also anticipates an above average season.
According to NOAA, “For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected.”
So far this season we have already seen tropical development begin in the Atlantic. Currently Disturbance 1 has a 70% chance of development into a sub-tropical storm in the next 48 hours. This storm will likely be Ana by the end of the week.
Other factors that lead NOAA to believe that this will be an above average include the fact that we have been seeing an era of hyper activity since 1995 that is likely not going to end this year, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions will be in place, above average sea surface temperatures, and less vertical wind shear in place. There is also an enhanced West African Monsoon that also enhances the probability for a hyper active Atlantic hurricane season.
You can track hurricanes from right here in the WOWK area right on the StormTracker 13 weather app. You can set locations to watch, anywhere in the United States. It’s a free app, works on any Android or Apple device and you can download it free right here.