Update: severe storm focus shifting to flash flooding concern

Weather

(WOWK) — UPDATE: 3:10 P.M. TUESDAY: Early storms have moved through with no warnings in the region for the first round of storms. Whether or not there is a second wave of strong storms is tenuous as of Tuesday afternoon. However a flash flood watch has been issued as showers and storms to the west are anticipated to develop and move in late night.

Area of interest for possible storm development late Tuesday afternoon

Weather models show a range of anything from re-development of storms starting near the Ohio River near Louisville late afternoon to almost no new rain or storms across the night.

The StormTracker 13 meteorologists suggest we remain weather-aware still just in case more storms do develop. Some models suggest that storms do intensify for a few hours then stall somewhat and weaken as they approach the Ohio River near Huntington.

Newest Predictor model output for 10pm Tuesday

If this happens, the attention shifts to the possibility of some localized high water issues. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you advised.

Flash flood watches overnight through Wednesday morning

Original story: Severe weather season has arrived in early May with a fast start across much of the nation and the WOWK-TV viewing area will see some gusty to severe storms today in a few different rounds. Flash flooding will be a threat today as well.

Storm Outlook for Tuesday May 4 has much of the area in the Slight Risk area

The Storm Prediction Center shows a “slight” risk of severe storms over the area on Tuesday in the yellow shaded area in the image above. That’s the 2nd of 5 categories of risk.

Risk categories explained

Storms can be ongoing even fairly early in the day.

Predictor model output for 8:45 a.m. Tuesday May 4, 2021

Storms likely fire up and the strongest portions of those storms are projected to move into the region before mid-day.

Predictor model output for 11 a.m. Tuesday May 4, 2021

The models appear to show a dry and warm period during the afternoon followed by a late day round of strong to possibly severe storms in the area in the evening.

Predictor model output for 6:45 p.m. Tuesday May 4, 2021

The individual outlooks for wind, tornadoes and hail show the following:

  • The risk of damaging or severe winds is about a 10% chance of having a report within 25 miles of a given point in the yellow zone below
Risk map for severe wind chances Tuesday May 4, 2021
  • The risk of a tornado is about a 2% chance of having a report within 25 miles of a given point in the green zone below
Risk map for tornado chances Tuesday May 4, 2021
  • The risk of damaging hail is about a 5% chance of having a report within 25 miles of a given point in the brown zone below
Risk map for damaging hail chances Tuesday May 4, 2021

Our StormTracker 13 Hail Predictor does however suggest the presence of more hail, especially across areas south of I-64 in the early round of storms. This could include non-damaging hail which is why you see a higher chance of seeing hail in our product below.

Projected hail swaths for Tuesday morning, May 4, 2021

Even though the risks do skew low for severe storms, people should be prepared for any mode of severe weather including lightning and localized flooding.

Summary of risks for various modes of severe weather for Tuesday May 4, 2021

We have already seen flash flooding in some areas and that is a possibility in small areas once again on Tuesday.

Predictor model projected rainfall amounts through Wednesday 8pm

People in the region should always have at least 3 ways to get storm warnings including the StormTracker 13 weather app which you can download for free right here.

Follow Spencer Adkins on Facebook and Twitter for the latest weather developments.

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