Some storms Thursday could reach severe limits


(WOWK) — Storms that have been firing to the west of the WOWK-TV viewing area will finally press east into the region starting Thursday.

Severe storm risk outlook areas for Thursday – Category 1 out of 5 for a low risk

The main risks for severe storms will be the chance of strong, gusty winds. Hail does not appear to be much of a factor and flooding is not either. The tornado chance is low but it is not zero.

Severe storm mode risk outline for Thursday

The actual discussion regarding tornado chances and damaging wind chances from the SPC reads as follows for our region:

As the surface cyclone occludes (Over Iowa), the surface wind field is expected to weaken across the warm sector. However, 850mb (approximately 5,000 feet above ground) flow should remain in the 30 to 40 knot range through much of the afternoon from Kentucky into the Great Lakes. This low-level jet should provide sufficient flow for an isolated damaging wind threat despite weak instability. In addition, enough low-level speed shear will be present that a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 
--SPC Forecast discussion

The key words in that discussion are “isolated damaging wind” and “tornado or two.” That risk is what pertains to the entire region outlined in the severe storm outlooks. Another way to say it is, the risk for these severe storms is low but it is not zero.

Tornado risk listed at 2% in green shaded area for Thursday – a low chance
Damaging wind risk listed at 5% in the brown shaded area for Thursday – also a low chance

The storms should be fairly widely scattered in the afternoon on Thursday.

Predictor model output for Thursday afternoon showing scattered storms

Friday also features scattered showers and storms but we are not listed in any severe weather outlooks by the Storm Prediction Center for Friday. However there could be a few strong cells well east of I-79 in West Virginia and also in parts of southwestern Virginia around the Wytheville area for those who have to travel Friday along I-77.

Predictor model output for Friday afternoon

Because the rain comes through in rounds, we do not expect flooding, however there will be a significant amount of rain after quite a dry stretch of days.

Predictor model output for total rainfall through Saturday morning

The temperatures will stay very mild throughout the rounds of rain even into the second half of the weekend.

With storms possible in the region, be sure to get the StormTracker 13 weather app. Enable notifications and location services for the app on your phone. In the “Storm Alerts” section, enable all alert types. You’ll be ahead of the storms.

Follow Spencer Adkins on Facebook and Twitter for the latest weather developments.

For local forecasts, weather alerts, live VIPIR Radar and more, download the FREE StormTracker 13 Weather App from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store.

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