Storms Thursday, then a drier weekend awaits

Weather

CHARLESTON, WV (WOWK) – Rounds of gusty showers and storms are anticipated for the region Thursday which will be followed by drier air and a good weekend for anyone looking to spend time outside.

On Thursday, the chance for the strongest of the storms to feature rotating updrafts is outlined east of I-77 and generally east of Charleston. The chance is listed by the Storm Prediction Center as a two percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point locally but the chance jumps substantially in the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. area.

SPC Tornado risk outlook for Thursday

The chance for damaging winds is five percent across the WOWK area meaning a five percent chance of a damaging wind gusts within 25 miles of a given point. This is considered a very low risk, just not zero. Most wind gusts should be in the 20 – 30 mph range, but we simply cannot rule out the chance for stronger gusts within individual storm cells.

SPC Damaging wind risk outline for Thursday

As of Wednesday evening, the weather models project showers and storms moving in from the west even before the sun rises.

Predictor model output for Thursday morning, Sept 3, 2020

The mid day storms are the storms that could potentially reach severe limits.

Predictor model output for Thursday morning, Sept 3, 2020

The reason for a chance of storms producing tornadoes is due to the change of direction of wind with height that increases after lunch time, specifically east of I-77 and it looks like that chance continues to move quickly east in the afternoon.

Predictor output of Energy-Helicity Index for early Thursday afternoon. Higher values show the increased chance of cyclonic supercells with increased tornado potential due to rotating updrafts.
Storm risk summary for Thursday, Sept 3, 2020

Once the storms move out Thursday afternoon, the only areas that can see lingering light showers or mist or drizzle will be on the western facing slopes of the higher terrain east of I-79.

Predictor model output for 11:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept 3, 2020

The chance for flash flooding does exist but would only be possible in highly localized areas that may see repetitive rounds of heavy rain in a short time frame.

Predictor model output for rainfall across Thursday and Friday

Once the storms head east and a cold front passes through, the highs will drop to close to 80 for Friday and remain in the 70s on Saturday as the sun comes back out. Comfortable nights will be felt as well with low temperatures in the 50s on Friday and Saturday.

Predictor model output for temperatures Friday, September 4, 2020

Now is a good time to get the StormTracker 13 weather app. You can get storm alerts the very moment they are issued for an area. Click here to get the download for your style of phone. Be sure to enable notifications and location services for the app and within the app, click on SafTNet Alert and enable all alert types for your location.

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