Tracking Thanksgiving weather 2019 – running blog


CHARLESTON, W.Va., (WOWK) – Thanksgiving week has a lot in store as usual this year. The week starts Monday with the gun-buck season opener in West Virginia, the Christmas Parade in Ashland Tuesday, a monster day of travel Wednesday, Thanksgiving Thursday and Black Friday of course after that.


Accumulating snow is now in the picture for Saturday night and Sunday morning for the areas from Summersville to the east and north by Sunday morning. Look for that to exit east quickly and also melt fairly fast.

Generally a coating on the grass in those areas is possible with up to 2 inches max on the highest mountain peaks of the state up around 3,500 feet plus in altitude.

Snowfall model output for Sunday morning as of 11/22 looking ahead to 11/24

There is also a chance for a few light showers on Tuesday night, we think after the Ashland Christmas Parade and the models have been back and forth again on the chance of rain late Wednesday night in the southern counties from I-64 to the south before drying out for Thanksgiving. It was there in the early morning GFS model and now it’s trending toward a drier look like the European model. Let’s just roll with the Tuesday evening showers for now.

Tuesday evening showers possible


Main takeaways from new weather models show rain on Saturday that can change into snow that accumulates in the high mountains of WV by Sunday morning but don’t look for any in the lowlands. There could be some ice on the roads Sunday morning in the high mountains as well.

Ice Tracker for Sunday morning shows possibly ice accumulation in eastern WV

Monday still looks good for the deer season “gun-buck” opening day in West Virginia.

Bucky the whitetail deer says he won’t be there opening day but hunters will!

Tuesday is the next chance to see showers. The models have sped up and that means there could be a chance of some rain for the Ashland Christmas Parade. It doesn’t look like a huge washout but there is “a chance” of a shower later in the evening so we’ll keep an eye on that.

Wednesday, our weather model has the skies drying out but it will be breezy. Other weather models like the European show a good bit of rain Wednesday so we’ll keep an eye on that too but Thanksgiving on all the models looks dry once again. We’re happy to roll with that! The showers that we thought were possible appear to remain far west Thursday night.

Stay tuned for more updates in the coming days!

The current thinking shows Monday with a dry day and a start in the 30s which the deer hunters will like. Low to mid 50s may be a little warm actually for their taste in the afternoon Monday.

Bucky the whitetail Deer is back – photo from Phil Paige – Forecast: crisp and dry

Models now indicate that a large low pressure system will be spinning up to our northwest and that will likely bring us some rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Models have “sped up” with the arrival of the rain so we hope to get the Ashland Christmas Parade in before the rain comes in from the southwest on Tuesday night.

Not terribly cold in Ashland Tuesday night, Nov 26, 2019 – but showers will be possible late

The American GFS model has the rain well after the parade but gone to the east of us quickly Wednesday. The only travel issues could be thanks to rain in the large airports in the northeast from DC to NYC and Boston, and some places like Chicago and Minneapolis due to windy conditions, but the details still need to be honed.

GFS Model 7:15am Wednesday Nov 27, 2019 – as of Wed Nov 20

Thanksgiving Day on all the models shows up nicely as a dry day with a new system coming in fast late with the chance of us getting scraped by a passing shower as fast as Thursday night from the southwest again. Temps should be close to 50 in the afternoon.

Very early call for Thanksgiving, November 28 – as of Nov 20

For “Black Friday,” the models are split so there’s no real clear signal. The GFS looks just like Friday the 22nd with heavy showers south of I-64 and the European model has it dry. At this juncture what we do know is that it will be too warm for snow with highs in the 50s.

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