Winter weather next week? Uncertainty is the only sure thing 5 days away

Weather
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February 07 2021 06:00 pm

(WOWK) – As the region enjoys a mild Thanksgiving Eve and Internet blogs and posts rumble about the chances of snow next week, the most certain thing is that weather models keep changing and they are very far apart on what will happen early next week.

The overall weather pattern indicates a strong area of low pressure coming up the eastern half of the nation from the south late Sunday. The question is where exactly the models try to place it from there. The afternoon American GFS model wants to place the low right over the WOWK viewing area Tuesday morning. That would keep the snow far to the west of us most of the day.

GFS model output of surface pressure and overall temperatures – blue is generally in the 30s.

Forecasters are frustrated because the European model (not allowed to be shown online in this setting) has far more snow. In fact what is called the “deterministic” version, or the version that gets shown as the model’s best overall single estimate, was calling for 20 to 26 inches of snow in western Ohio, centered on the Dayton area while the American GFS model now calls for this:

GFS weather model snow output for the first half of next week

The newest look at the GFS model now disagrees with its own previous run of data which had about a half inch of snow in our region and about 2 to 3 inches in western Ohio and the West Virginia mountains.

What is likely: is that the winds will pick up a good bit on Monday until Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will likely only be in the 30s. Wind chills could be significantly colder and the roads will at least be wet and the best chances of slick driving are in the high terrain of West Virginia the second half of Tuesday and again on Wednesday. It’s also very likely that weather models will start to come into more agreement in the coming days.

StormTracker 13 will stay on top of the weather situation unfolding for next week.

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